The San Diego State Aztecs and Arizona State Sun Devils come at Saturday night’s game from two very different directions. One team comes from a smaller conference and another team comes from a power conference, but the small-conference team has excelled the last two seasons while the power conference team has noticeably struggled. This game raises the question of whether the two programs will continue their present courses, or if an adjustment is likely to occur this season. Saturday will be a highly revealing game.
Details
Odds: Sun Devils -3.5
Date & Time: Saturday, September 9, 11 PM ET
Location: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, AZ
Broadcast: Pac-12 Network
Reasons To Bet On The San Diego State Aztecs
The Arizona State Sun Devils are a mess. They struggled for most of the first half against a bad New Mexico State team. They lacked rhythm and were not nearly as precise as the coaching staff hoped they would be. Arizona State has undergone changes at both coordinator spots. Billy Napier is the new offensive coordinator, replacing Chip Lindsey, and Phil Bennett is the new defensive coordinator, replacing Keith Patterson. Both moves seem to be downgrades. Lindsey worked well with quarterback Manny Wilkins before Wilkins got injured last season. Lindsey, though, moved upward on the coaching ladder by going to Auburn. Napier has mostly been a position coach in his career and has not proved that he can be a great offensive coordinator.
On defense, it might be even worse. Bennett comes from Baylor, where the Bears’ defense was regularly shredded by Big 12 passing offenses. Bennett is hardly the best choice head coach Todd Graham could have made when trying to fill slots on his staff. Arizona State seems like a program which is unsure of its identity. That is not a problem for San Diego State, which relies on a ball-control running game and a rock-solid defense to put pressure on opponents. Early in the season, San Diego State can catch Arizona State before the Sun Devils smooth out their problems.
Reasons To Bet On The Arizona State Sun Devils
The Aztecs will not have the same quality offense they had in previous seasons. Donnel Pumphrey, the do-it-all running back who meant so much to the team and was the heart and soul of San Diego State football, is now in the pros. His absence will be felt statistically, but also emotionally. He did so many things for the Aztecs in terms of helping them to play the way they needed to play. With him gone, Arizona State – playing at home with Wilkins now healthy again at quarterback after his injuries last year – should feel very optimistic about its chances. The Sun Devils shook off a lot of rust in Week 1 and should be much more polished in Week 2. As long as they don’t turn the ball over more than once, San Diego State will find it hard to score easily and create its own offense without Pumphrey.
Outlook
The Pumphrey factor is hard to overlook but San Diego State looks like they’ll have plenty of other weapons that can get the job done. Last week against UC Davis, they dominated the game far more than the 38-17 score indicates (they were leading 38-3 heading into the fourth quarter). Quarterback Christian Chapman completed all but five of his passes while the running game churned out 276 yards and three touchdowns (5.3 yards per carry).
On the flip side, Arizona State didn’t look so hot at home to New Mexico State. This is a team that’s supposed to show a sense of urgency with head coach Todd Graham on the hot seat. Instead, they nearly made a mess of things as they were outscored 18-7 in the fourth quarter. New Mexico State is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the nation but they compiled 549 yards of offense and five touchdowns. Had they not missed PAT’s and two-point conversions, they could have won.
At this point, we don’t have the stomach to lay any points with Arizona State. They don’t deserve your money. Either take the Aztecs or stay away.
Prediction: Aztecs +3.5
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